Impact of Climate Change on Sugarcane Productivity in the Southern Part of Nepal Using DSSAT-CANEGRO Model
Abstract
The research on impact of climate change in variety specific sugarcane cultivation in southern part of Nepal revealed realistic assessment on forecasting impact of climate change in sugarcane production as well as their successful adaptation strategic for agricultural management and future planning. The objective of this research is to describe climatic sensitivities of sugarcane; assessment on their yield simulation using DSSAT-CANEGRO model of five distinct sugarcane varieties that was cultivated in NSRP; and to calibrate and validate the simulated & observed and adaptation strategic for early, mid and late cultivars; and. The model created four years distinct simulated yields in which datasets was calibrated for consecutive two fiscal years (2018-19 and 2019-20) and validated with consecutive two fiscal years’ (2020-21 and 2021-22). The sugarcane varieties (Co 86032, Co 0118, BO 120, CoSe 98255, CoS 08272) showed correlation coefficient of 0.5983, 0.889, 0.8713, and 0.7591. The sensitivity analysis on yield has been simulated with wide range of weather parameters with its values in two stage of sugarcane crop: germination and growth development. The climate modification has been done with DSSAT model as individual as well as combined form with weather parameters Tmin (±1 to ±3˚C), Tmax (±1 to ±3˚C), solar radiation Tmax (±1 to ±3 MJ/m2/day), and default CO2 concentration of 380 ppm to 500 ppm and 720 ppm scenario. The studied disclosed that with decrease in weather parameters value; the simulation yield of sugarcane decreases with decrease in parameters value and with increase in Tmax, Tmin, Solar radiation; the simulated yield increases but very slight effect of CO2 increase in yield except Co-86032 & CoSe-98255 in both stages.
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28. Chaudhary KK, Mishra AK. Impact of Agricultureon Economic Development of Nepal usingStatistical Model.
J Adv Res Alt Energ Env Eco2021; 8(2): 1-3
29. Mishra SK, Shrestha S, Jha SK. et al. Design andTesting of Power Tiller Driven 2-Rows ReducedTillage Maize
Planter. J Adv Res Prod Ind Engg2023; 10(2): 1-10
30. Mishra S, Shrestha S, Mishra A, Jha M, Joshi M, C B, Chaudhary D, Sahani S. Performance Evaluation of Tractor
driven Round Baler in Residue Management. JBMIS [Internet]. 31Dec.2023 [cited 6Jun.2024];10(2):26-0.
Available from: https://qtanalytics.in/journals/index. php/JBMIS/article/view/3086
31. Mishra, A. K. (2024). GovernmentInvestment in Agriculture and PolicyRecommendations . SP Swag: Sudur-
Pashchim Wisdom of AcademicGentry Journal, 1(1), 1-10.https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11056826
EVALUATION, PERSPECTIVES, AND POTENTIAL OF SUGARCANE AS AN ENERGY SOURCE.” Environmental Research Journal 10 (4).
2. Hannah, Tony, and Donald Spence. 1996. The International Sugar Trade. Elsevier.
3. FAO. 2021. “FAOSTAT ANALYTICAL BRIEF 60 Agricultural Production Statistics 2000-2021 FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 60 FAOSTAT CROPS AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION INTRODUCTION.” Agricultural Production Statistics 2000-2021 60: 1–17.
4. Morais, Lizz Kezzy de, Marcelo Sfeir de Aguiar, Paulo de Albuquerque e Silva, Tassiano Maxuell Marinho
Câmara, Danilo Eduardo Cursi, Antônio Ribeiro Fernandes Júnior, Roberto Giacomini Chapola, Monalisa
Sampaio Carneiro, and João Carlos Bespalhok Filho. 2015. “Breeding of Sugarcane.” Industrial Crops: Breeding
for Bioenergy and Bioproducts, 29–42.
5. Srivastava, Ashok K, and Mahendra K Rai. 2012. “Sugarcane Production: Impact of Climate Change and Its
Mitigation.” Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity 13 (4).
6. Food, World. 2022. World Food and Agriculture – Statistical Yearbook 2022. World Food and Agriculture – Statistical Yearbook 2022. https://doi.org/10.4060/ cc2211en.
7. MoALD, 2021. 2021. “Statistical Information On Nepalese Agriculture (2077/78 ).” Publicatons of the Nepal
in Data Portal 73: 274. https://nepalindata.com/ resource/statistical-information-nepalese-agriculture- 207374-201617/.
8. Neupane, Prem Raj, Tek Narayan Maraseni, and Michael Köhl. 2017. “The Sugarcane Industry in Nepal: Opportunities and Challenges.” Environmental Development 24: 86–98.
9. Fischer, Günther, Mahendra Shah, Francesco N. Tubiello, and Harrij Van Velhuizen. 2005. “Socio-Economic and Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Integrated Assessment, 1990–2080.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360 (1463): 2067–83.
10. Zhao, Chuang, Bing Liu, Shilong Piao, Xuhui Wang, David B Lobell, Yao Huang, Mengtian Huang, Yitong Yao,
Simona Bassu, and Philippe Ciais. 2017. “Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four
Independent Estimates.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114 (35): 9326–31.
11. Oliveira, J C M, L C Timm, T T Tominaga, F A M Cassaro, K Reichardt, O O S Bacchi, D Dourado-Neto, and G M
de S Câmara. 2001. “Soil Temperature in a Sugar-Cane Crop as a Function of the Management System.” Plant
and Soil 230: 61–66.
12. Asseng, S, Y Zhu, B Basso, T Wilson, and D Cammarano. 2014. “Simulation Modeling: Applications in Cropping Systems.”
13. Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Joshua Elliott, Delphine Deryng, Alex C Ruane, Christoph Müller, Almut Arneth, Kenneth
J Boote, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, and Nikolay Khabarov. 2014. “Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate
Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison.” Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 111 (9): 3268–73.
14. Rosenzweig, C, and A Iglesias. 1998. “The Use of Crop Models for International Climate Change Impact Assessment.” Understanding Options for Agricultural Production, 267–92.
15. Jones, J. W., G. Hoogenboom, C. H. Porter, K. J. Boote, W. D. Batchelor, L. A. Hunt, P. W. Wilkens, U. Singh, A.
J. Gijsman, and J. T. Ritchie. 2003. The DSSAT Cropping System Model. European Journal of Agronomy. Vol.
18. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7.
16. Singels, A, M R Jones, C H Porter, M A Smit, G Kingston, F Marin, S Chinorumba, A Jintrawet, C Suguitani, and M van den Berg. 2010. “The DSSAT4. 5 Canegro Model: A Useful Decision Support Tool for Research and Management of Sugarcane Production.” In Proceedings of the International Society of Sugar Cane Technologists. Vol. 27.
17. Pandey, Amita, Diwas Raj Bista, Thaneshwar Bhandari, Hari Krishna Panta, and Sudip Devkota. 2020. “Profitability and Resource-Use Efficiency of Sugarcane Production in Nawalparasi West District, Nepal.” Cogent
Food & Agriculture 6 (1): 1857592.
18. Chaudhary, Ram P, and Chandra K Subedi. 2019. “CHURE-TARAI Madhesh Landscape, Nepal from Biodiversity
Research Perspective.” Plant Arch 19: 351–59
19. Neupane, Jaya Lal. 2022. “Dynamics of Hydro-Power Development in Nepal: Water-Energy-Food Security
Prospect.
20. Lewis, W. Arthur. 2013. “Economic Survey.” Economic Survey 3. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315016702.
21. Verma, Amit Kumar, Pradeep Kumar Garg, K. S.Hari Prasad, and Vinay Kumar Dadhwal. 2023. “Variety-Specific Sugarcane Yield Simulations and Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane Yield Using DSSAT-CSM-CANEGRO Model.” Agricultural Water Management 275 (July 2022): 108034. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.
2022.108034.
22. Jones, Matthew R, and Abraham Singels. 2018. “Refining the Canegro Model for Improved Simulation
of Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane.” European Journal of Agronomy 100: 76–86.
23. Pickering, N B, James W Hansen, J W Jones, C M Wells, V K Chan, and D C Godwin. 1994. “WeatherMan: A
Utility for Managing and Generating Daily Weather Data.” Agronomy Journal 86 (2): 332–37.
24. Smith, Hunter D, Chris H Wilson, Stuart J Rymph, Erick R S Santos, and Kenneth J Boote. 2023. “Adapting the
CROPGRO Perennial Forage Model to Predict Growth and Development of Pensacola Bahiagrass.” Field Crops
Research 302: 109095.
25. Bhengra, A. H., M. K. Yadav, Chandrabhan Patel, P. K. Singh, K. K. Singh, and R. S. Singh. 2016. “Calibration
and Validation Study of Sugarcane (DSSAT-CANEGRO V4.6.1) Model over North Indian Region.” Journal of Agrometeorology 18 (2): 234–39.
26. Stokes, Chris J, N Geoff Inman-Bamber, Y L Everingham, and Justin Sexton. 2016. “Measuring and Modelling
CO2 Effects on Sugarcane.” Environmental Modelling & Software 78: 68–78.
27. Mishra, A.K. Nepal, A., & Aithal, P.S. (August2022). Industry 4.0 Concept for Nepal -Operating Virtual Farming Industry. PP- 31-35, Proceedings on Future Trends in ICCTand its Applications in IT, Management and Education, Editors: Dr. Krishna Prasad, K.,Dr. P. S. Aithal, & Dr. A. Jayanthiladevi,ISBN: 978-81-949961- 8-7, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7215189
28. Chaudhary KK, Mishra AK. Impact of Agricultureon Economic Development of Nepal usingStatistical Model.
J Adv Res Alt Energ Env Eco2021; 8(2): 1-3
29. Mishra SK, Shrestha S, Jha SK. et al. Design andTesting of Power Tiller Driven 2-Rows ReducedTillage Maize
Planter. J Adv Res Prod Ind Engg2023; 10(2): 1-10
30. Mishra S, Shrestha S, Mishra A, Jha M, Joshi M, C B, Chaudhary D, Sahani S. Performance Evaluation of Tractor
driven Round Baler in Residue Management. JBMIS [Internet]. 31Dec.2023 [cited 6Jun.2024];10(2):26-0.
Available from: https://qtanalytics.in/journals/index. php/JBMIS/article/view/3086
31. Mishra, A. K. (2024). GovernmentInvestment in Agriculture and PolicyRecommendations . SP Swag: Sudur-
Pashchim Wisdom of AcademicGentry Journal, 1(1), 1-10.https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11056826
Published
2024-06-20
How to Cite
JHA, Mukti Nath et al.
Impact of Climate Change on Sugarcane Productivity in the Southern Part of Nepal Using DSSAT-CANEGRO Model.
Journal of Advanced Research in Alternative Energy, Environment and Ecology, [S.l.], v. 11, n. 3&4, p. 1-15, june 2024.
ISSN 2455-3093.
Available at: <http://thejournalshouse.com/index.php/AltEnergy-Ecology-EnvironmentJ/article/view/1127>. Date accessed: 04 jan. 2025.
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Research Article
